Peak oil talks about the amount of oil produced. It doesn't tell us anything about the future price of oil. A short paper at the Oil Drum looks at the price of "mined" commodities through their peak and decline years.

They mayor & Barry Barker took time out from the ped summit banquet to address our current situation with TARC funding.

Recall that as fuel prices rise yet occupational tax stays flat, TARC is cutting routes. For example this year they're trying to decide between two options, both of them hitting working people squarely in the chest:

via The Oil Drum, Falls-Church News Gazette:

In recent weeks, airlines around the world have been reporting substantial losses, declaring bankruptcy or completely shutting down. So far the losses have been mostly of small airlines, but many of the large ones have started to thrash around for merger partners. At $3.71 a gallon, jet fuel is now the single largest expense an airline faces.

In 2000, the airlines fuel bill was $14 billion. It is now pushing $60 billion and climbing. Southwest, the most profitable carrier, recently announced that this year’s fuel bill will be $500 million more than last year and equal to 2007 profits. During the first quarter of 2008 American airlines lost $328 million; Delta lost $274 million; United lost $537 million; Continental $80 million; Northwest $191 million; and US Airways $236 million. Only Southwest Airlines, which did a better job of hedging its fuel than the others, made a profit.

It is clear we are going to see major changes in air travel shortly.

...

Airlines are continuing to raise fares -- the average ticket is up 10 percent over last year -- but at some price point the airlines will drive away discretionary travel and they will be left with only essential business and personal travel that is unlikely to fill many planes. On top of the fuel prices is the current economic downturn which is likely to start impacting discretionary travel before the year is out. In short, airplanes simply can’t make money while charging affordable fares at current, much less prospective, fuel prices. The era of 500 mph travel for most people is nearly over.

Enlarge Graph
Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads:
Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled
versus year
(graph is not zero-indexed)

This is staggering news: according to data supplied by the FHWA, the long, steady growth in vehicle miles traveled has ended. We have hit the point where fuel prices have knocked out our growing traffic demand.

All transportation plans assuming a steady growth in highway traffic need to be re-examined.

Source: FHWA February 2008 Traffic Volume Trends Report (the graph is page 9 of 10 on the PDF).

UPDATE: With some digging, I was able to find what this metric looked like during the 1979 "oil shock". However, the 1979 shock was temporary. There is no reason that oil prices will retreat like they did in the 1980s. Click here for the graph at FHWA.

UPDATE #2: To understand why high oil prices are here to stay, check out Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production (WSJ, Nov 19th, 2007, Page 1, Column A) (google around a bit for a version not behind their paywall).

UPDATE #3: Businessweek - Not Guzzling Quite So Much Gas.

UPDATE #4: a forum comment at The Oil Drum explains the price elasticity of gasoline, & gets to the heart of the matter.

the "TARCettes" issue

• CART Quarterly Meeting Next Wednesday
• Relaunched CART Website
• Talk by John Cullen This Wednesday
• How Do I Stop Courier-Journal Yard Litter?
• Pedestrian Summit Planning Heats Up
• Transit Needs Your Phone Call for Kentucky Legislature Funding
• Ohio River Bridges Under-Financed, Fight Moves to Tolls
• Mr. Theo & The TARCettes Perform Musical Bike Rack Demo
• Editorial: Are you more mobile than a 14 year old girl?
• Editorial: Twenty First Century Reality Check
• Study: Americans Prefer Transit to Roads

CART regularly makes claims that leave the public going "huh?".  That's because we're reading the wonky research that's recommending no new roads, higher gas taxes, increased investment in rail, and increased investment in public transit.  So here is our bibliography:

by David Coyte, edited by David Morse

Our business community needs to take a deep breath and face the economic realities that now, and for the foreseeable future, will grip our economy. It is time to detach ourselves from the obsolete policies of Greater Louisville, INC (GLI) and examine what will truly serve us in this century. No where is this more important than in our consideration of the Bridges Project.

"Another Dam" Issue

• Mayor Jerry needs to hear you value Public Transportation
• Green Energy Roadshow tours Kentucky
• Mother Anne Lee Dam Online
• Complete Streets bills in Kentucky & Illinois
• TransMilenio Bus Rapid Transit in Bogotá, Colombia
• Wall Street Journal: Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production
• Bicycle Helmets Stigmatize & Kill?
• Sweden uses Subway Body Heat to Heat Offices

"the John Henry issue"

• 8664 to speak at quarterly meeting
• Safe Streets Louisville
• Anti Bridge Strategy
• Study: Americans Want 40 Miles Per Gallon Law
• Ethanol Fuels Hunger
• Transit Oriented Development
• Activist Moves Mountain, Literally

In January of 2004 Dye Management presented their "Transportation Cabinet Management Review" which had been commissioned by the Legislative Research Commission. This is a comprehensive analysis examining all aspects of the Cabinets operations, funding, and management with specific recommendations to address problems.