US Vehicle Miles Travelled Reach Their Plateau
Enlarge Graph
Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads:
Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled
versus year
(graph is not zero-indexed)
This is staggering news: according to data supplied by the FHWA, the long, steady growth in vehicle miles traveled has ended. We have hit the point where fuel prices have knocked out our growing traffic demand.
All transportation plans assuming a steady growth in highway traffic need to be re-examined.
Source: FHWA February 2008 Traffic Volume Trends Report (the graph is page 9 of 10 on the PDF).
UPDATE: With some digging, I was able to find what this metric looked like during the 1979 "oil shock". However, the 1979 shock was temporary. There is no reason that oil prices will retreat like they did in the 1980s. Click here for the graph at FHWA.
UPDATE #2: To understand why high oil prices are here to stay, check out Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production (WSJ, Nov 19th, 2007, Page 1, Column A) (google around a bit for a version not behind their paywall).
UPDATE #3: Businessweek - Not Guzzling Quite So Much Gas.
UPDATE #4: a forum comment at The Oil Drum explains the price elasticity of gasoline, & gets to the heart of the matter.